Ireland and Northern Ireland are projected to fall short of their 2030 goal to have 80% of their electricity generated from renewable sources, according to energy consultancy Cornwall Insight. The firm estimates that by the end of the decade, only 70% of the electrical power in the region will come from renewables, with the target not being reached until 2032.
Cornwall Insight’s analysis highlights several factors contributing to this delay. The consultancy’s Single Electricity Market (SEM) Benchmark Power Curve cites ongoing issues in the planning process and a shortage of grid connections as significant barriers. These issues have impeded power producers from participating in the Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS 3) auction.
Additionally, the report points out that the lower onshore wind auction price cap set for the RESS 4 auction—scheduled to be the last opportunity to secure new generation capacity before 2030—could deter potential bidders. Kitty Nolan, Energy Modeller at Cornwall Insight, emphasized that without addressing these systemic challenges, including critical infrastructure and planning concerns, Ireland’s renewable energy goals will remain unattainable.
Nolan warned of the broader implications: “While some may argue that the delay won’t have a significant impact, Ireland’s continued reliance on insecure imports exposes us to global market disruptions, potentially driving up prices. Moreover, our dependence on fossil fuel-generated power is delaying our progress toward achieving net zero.”
She stressed the need for immediate action, stating, “It’s crucial that we streamline these planning processes and invest in grid infrastructure to meet our climate commitments. Achieving the 80% renewable target is possible, but it requires decisive and immediate action from all stakeholders involved.”
Despite these challenges, Cornwall Insight notes that significant progress has been made. The SEM currently has the highest contribution of wind generation of any power system globally, and the proportion of electricity from renewables is expected to double over the next eight years. Recent changes allowing generators to delay their operational date by up to two years due to grid connection issues or planning permission reviews could increase the number of renewables bids.
Northern Ireland is also working on a new renewable support scheme designed to enhance renewable energy projects. However, industry group Wind Energy Ireland recently warned that without extending planning permission timelines, dozens of wind farms may face closure before the decade ends.
