At 11pm on January 31, 2020, the UK officially left the European Union, becoming the first and only member state to exit the bloc. This marked the start of an 11-month “transition period,” during which the UK remained part of the single market and customs union but ceased to be involved in EU political institutions. Now, five years later, the effects of Brexit continue to shape the country’s political landscape, its economy, and its relationship with the EU.
According to a YouGov poll released to mark the anniversary, 55% of Britons now believe leaving the EU was the wrong decision, while only 30% think it was the right one. Among younger voters who were ineligible to vote in the 2016 referendum, a staggering 75% feel that Brexit was a mistake. Despite this, there is little political will to revisit the issue or push for rejoining the EU’s single market or customs union. Instead, the focus is on “resetting” relations with the EU, a goal emphasized by the new Labour government as part of its broader economic growth strategy.
Brexit has had a particularly strong impact on certain sectors of the economy. The horticulture industry, for instance, has been severely disrupted by new trade barriers. The Horticultural Trade Association reports that many of its members are still grappling with rising costs, delays, stock damage, and bureaucratic red tape. Paolo Arrigo, the owner of Seeds of Italy in northwest London, shared his frustration with the new regulations, revealing that he has had to destroy £11,000 worth of tomato seeds due to difficulties importing them. He hopes for changes to ease trade barriers in his sector, which he believes has been overlooked in Brexit discussions.
In a recent study, the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe highlighted the ongoing challenges of Brexit, emphasizing that the UK’s separation from the EU would require continuous engagement with Brussels. The study also pointed out that the Northern Ireland border has become a more prominent issue as the UK diverges from the EU. While such divergence does not necessarily lead to political crises, it requires careful management to avoid future tensions.
Anand Menon, director of the think-tank, noted that Brexit was always about “trade-offs.” While the UK now has control over its laws and immigration policy, these benefits come at a cost, particularly to the economy. One unexpected outcome, according to Menon, is the increase in net immigration, which has more than doubled since the referendum—a point that has surprised many who voted for reduced immigration.
As the political climate surrounding Brexit remains divided, the Liberal Democrats have called for a new customs union with the EU. Party leader Ed Davey argued that this would foster stronger ties with Europe, especially in light of growing uncertainty about the US’s reliability on global security and economic matters. However, within Labour, there is little appetite for rejoining the customs union, though the desire to improve relations with the EU remains strong.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently stated that improving ties with the EU is in the “national interest” and crucial for the UK’s future prosperity. As the country navigates its post-Brexit path, the government’s approach to its relationship with Europe will be a key factor in shaping its future economic and political landscape.