Brent crude futures surged again on Tuesday, closing out what is set to be the largest monthly gain in history, driven by a fresh tanker attack in the Middle East and warnings from the US over intensified military action if Iran does not reach a deal.
Front-month Brent futures for May rose $5.31, or 4.71 percent, to $118 per barrel at 1:30 p.m. GMT. This would mark a 63 percent gain for the month, the largest since LSEG records began in 1988. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for May also climbed 49 cents, or 0.48 percent, to $103 per barrel, representing a 54 percent increase for the month, the most significant jump since May 2020. June Brent futures, by contrast, edged up only seven cents to $107.
The market has been steadily rising over the last four weeks as attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure have disrupted oil and gas flows, creating what analysts describe as the worst-ever supply disruption in history. The Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for around one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has been at the center of the crisis.
The price spikes have followed a familiar pattern: each time US President Donald Trump signals a potential de-escalation, prices dip briefly, only to climb again as Iran threatens vessels transiting the Strait. Trump has urged other countries to act to reopen the shipping lane, though European nations have refrained from direct intervention. While the US has lifted sanctions on Russian barrels and coordinated reserve releases with other nations, analysts warn these measures can only temporarily offset the supply shortage.
“With the oil market’s remaining buffers gradually being consumed, the market’s vulnerability to a prolonged closure of Hormuz means that we are moving closer to physical oil shortages across a wider geographic scope, and the upward momentum for oil prices is likely to strengthen further,” said Lin Ye, vice president of commodities at Rystad Energy.
Trading was volatile on Tuesday, with front-month Brent swinging between a 4.8 percent rise and a 1.3 percent drop from Monday’s close, as the May contract approached expiry and liquidity thinned.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the next few days could be decisive and that the US would intensify its operations if Iran fails to make a deal. He added that other countries must contribute to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump echoed this stance on Truth Social, urging nations that did not participate in US strikes to buy American oil and intervene in the strait.
The attack on the fully loaded crude tanker Al Salmi at Dubai port, capable of carrying two million barrels, underscored the risks to Gulf energy infrastructure. Kuwaiti officials also warned of potential oil spills. Experts say even if hostilities ease, repairing damaged facilities will take time, keeping supply tight and sustaining high oil prices.
