Ireland will require thousands of additional healthcare professionals by 2040 as an ageing population and rising demand place sustained pressure on the country’s health system, according to new research from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
The report, funded by the Health Service Executive (HSE), projects a significant expansion in workforce needs across primary and community care services. It assesses multiple scenarios based on population growth, demographic ageing and evolving models of care delivery across regions.
In 2022, around 5,650 whole-time equivalent staff delivered services including audiology, dietetics, occupational therapy, physiotherapy, podiatry, speech and language therapy, and public health and community nursing. By 2040, demand is expected to rise sharply across all categories examined.
Public health and community nursing will see some of the steepest increases, with projections indicating a need for up to 2,231 additional nurses, representing average annual growth of about 3 percent. Services primarily supporting older people in community settings, such as audiology, occupational therapy and podiatry, are also expected to experience strong expansion.
Other disciplines, including dietetics, physiotherapy and speech and language therapy, are forecast to grow at a slower but steady pace, with annual increases ranging between 1 percent and 2.1 percent over the same period.
Regionally, the strongest rises in workforce demand are expected in the eastern parts of the country, reflecting population concentration and higher projected growth in those areas.
Dr Aoife Brick, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI and lead author of the report, said the findings highlight a broad-based requirement for workforce expansion across all service areas and regions. She noted that future planning will need to balance recruitment with efforts to manage demand effectively, particularly as reforms under Sláintecare continue.
HSE Chief People Officer Anne Marie Hoey said the findings will help guide long-term planning discussions with government and funding bodies. She added that efforts are already under way to strengthen domestic training pipelines and expand recruitment to meet future needs.
Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill welcomed the report, saying it reinforces the scale of demographic challenges facing Ireland’s health system. She said that increasing workforce capacity, alongside infrastructure investment and productivity improvements, will be essential to ensuring sustainability.
She added that the projections provide an important evidence base for shaping policy decisions aimed at strengthening health and social care services over the coming decades.
The report underscores the scale of transformation required within Ireland’s healthcare system as shifting demographics continue to drive rising demand for community-based services.
