A new report by stockbroker Davy has warned that Ireland needs to build 93,000 homes per year between now and 2031 to meet the growing demand. This figure far exceeds the current housebuilding targets in the government’s Programme for Government, which aims to deliver 300,000 new homes between 2025 and 2030.
The report’s estimate is based on the projection that Ireland’s population will reach six million by 2031. It also highlights a housing shortfall of 230,000 homes, which continues to worsen as the country struggles to meet demand. Last year, only 30,000 homes were built, falling short of the official target of 33,000 and significantly below the projections made by former Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien.
The report notes that the shortage is particularly affecting younger age groups, with a lack of available housing impacting household formation and family growth. Davy has called for urgent reforms to address the crisis, including a review of rent caps, measures to reduce construction costs, and a more streamlined planning system to support essential housing development.
The report also points out that it will take considerably longer than seven years to meet the Housing Commission’s recommendation of increasing social housing stock to 20% of the total housing market.
Kevin Timoney, chief economist at Davy, said that despite efforts to ramp up construction, Ireland will only be able to build up to 75,000 homes per year by 2031, leaving a significant gap between demand and supply. He stressed that the current housing shortfall is not just a temporary issue, and the “pent-up demand” for homes is “really significant” and will not go away.
Speaking on RTÉ’s News at One, Timoney explained that the “huge” gap between what is needed and what is being delivered can be attributed to difficulties in apartment delivery, which has become a major bottleneck in meeting housing targets.
According to the report, addressing these challenges will require “significant reforms” to ensure housing construction can meet the increasing demand over the coming years.