Stockbrokers Davy predict a slight rise in new home completions in Ireland in 2024, with 34,000 homes expected to be built, a marginal increase over the 32,695 homes completed in 2023. The report also forecasts significant growth in housing construction in the coming years, with 42,000 homes expected to be finished in 2025 and 50,000 by 2026.
Davy’s latest report on the Irish economy highlights that over 59,000 new housing units have been started in the 12 months leading up to October 2024. However, many of these are apartments, which typically take longer to complete than houses. As a result, these units are expected to boost housing completions in 2025 and 2026 rather than in 2024.
While the current forecast for new homes in 2024 shows only a slight increase, experts note that Ireland’s housing needs are growing. With a rising population and a backlog of housing construction from previous years, analysts suggest the country needs over 60,000 new homes annually to meet demand. Despite this, Davy’s projection for 2024 remains below the required number, underlining the ongoing challenge in addressing the housing shortage.
Davy also predicts that house prices in Ireland will continue to rise. The stockbroker organization has revised its economic outlook, forecasting a 4% growth in Ireland’s economy for both 2024 and 2026. The report also highlights the continued importance of foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly from US multinationals, in driving economic growth.
However, Davy cautions that there are risks to this growth, particularly concerning Ireland’s corporation tax base. It warns that the country’s pharmaceutical exports could be affected by potential tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could lead to a decline in corporation tax revenues. A reduction in non-pharmaceutical exports could also have a significant impact on Ireland’s economy.
Despite these risks, Davy emphasizes the key role of foreign investment in providing high-skilled jobs. The report notes that employees in foreign-owned companies have a higher average income of €77,500 compared to €59,000 for employees in domestically owned firms.
As Ireland grapples with its housing challenges and economic uncertainties, Davy’s forecast underscores the need for continued investment and strategic planning to address both the country’s housing shortage and potential risks to its economic stability.
