Rice prices in Japan surged by a staggering 99.2% in June compared to the same period last year, piling more pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba just days before critical upper house elections. The sharp rise in one of Japan’s staple foods has intensified public frustration with the government, already grappling with falling approval ratings.
Data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs on Thursday showed that June’s spike followed similar increases in previous months, with rice prices jumping 101% in May and nearly 98.4% in April. While the nation’s core inflation rate eased slightly to 3.3% in June from 3.7% in May, the relentless rise in food costs continues to affect consumer sentiment.
The economic pressure comes at a politically precarious time for Ishiba. The latest polls suggest his ruling coalition may lose its majority in the upper house in Sunday’s elections—a blow that could force his resignation less than a year into office. The coalition had already lost control of the lower house in October, marking the worst electoral performance for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 15 years.
Voters have voiced growing discontent over the rising cost of living and a series of scandals within the LDP. The soaring rice prices, driven by a mix of poor harvests due to extreme weather, speculative stockpiling by traders, and last year’s panic buying following a “megaquake” warning, have become a focal point of public anger.
In response, the government has resorted to releasing rice from its emergency reserves since February—an extraordinary move typically reserved for natural disasters.
Meanwhile, Ishiba faces mounting international pressure as well. Washington has warned that new 25% tariffs on Japanese goods, including rice, could come into effect on August 1 if a trade agreement is not reached. The U.S. is pressing Tokyo to reduce its $70 billion trade surplus and purchase more American exports such as gas, oil, cars, and agricultural products.
Trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa has made seven trips to Washington to negotiate terms, and is currently hosting U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Tokyo. Both are scheduled to visit the World Expo in Osaka on Saturday.
Amid these economic and political headwinds, the Bank of Japan has been cautiously adjusting its monetary policy. Although tightening began last year, analysts say tariff threats and wage stagnation are likely to delay any aggressive rate hikes. Stefan Angrick of Moody’s Analytics warned that continued price pressures, currency weakness, and subdued wage growth could complicate the central bank’s efforts to stabilize the economy.
“The Bank of Japan is in a bind,” Angrick noted. “A rate hike could come by January, possibly even December, but until then, households will continue to feel the pinch.”
