The global unemployment rate is expected to remain steady in 2026, the United Nations’ International Labour Organization (ILO) said Wednesday, but the agency cautioned that the apparent stability masks a severe shortage of decent jobs.
The ILO’s report estimates that unemployment held at 4.9% last year and is projected to remain at a similar level through 2027, amounting to roughly 186 million people without work worldwide. While labour markets have weathered recent economic shocks better than anticipated, the ILO warned that the quality of available jobs has stagnated, leaving hundreds of millions of workers trapped in poverty and precarious employment.
“Global labour markets look stable, but that stability is quite fragile,” said Caroline Fredrickson, head of the ILO’s research department. She said the “apparent calm masks deeper and unresolved problems” that could worsen without urgent policy interventions.
Trade uncertainty is a key risk factor, the report said. The ILO noted that disruptions caused by tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, combined with long-term changes in global trade, could reduce labour returns and limit wage growth for both skilled and unskilled workers. Southeast Asia, Southern Asia, and Europe were identified as particularly vulnerable regions. The report highlighted that in 2024, 465 million jobs globally were linked to foreign demand through exports and related supply chains.
The quality of employment remains a major concern. ILO chief Gilbert Houngbo said that “resilient growth and stable unemployment figures should not distract us from the deeper reality: hundreds of millions of workers remain trapped in poverty, informality, and exclusion.” According to the report, nearly 300 million workers live in extreme poverty, earning less than $3 a day, while some 2.1 billion people are engaged in informal work with limited access to social protections, labour rights, and job security.
Young people are particularly at risk. Unemployment among 15- to 24-year-olds is projected to reach 12.4% in 2025, and roughly 260 million young people are expected to be out of education, employment, or training. The report also warned that automation and artificial intelligence could make it harder for educated youth in wealthier countries to secure their first high-skill roles.
Gender inequality remains entrenched, with women accounting for just two-fifths of global employment. The ILO stressed that stable employment figures do not automatically indicate healthy labour markets. Fredrickson urged governments to take domestic policy measures to improve job quality, protect workers’ rights, and promote inclusive growth.
“Without decisive action, today’s stability risks giving way to deeper inequalities,” she said, highlighting the need for urgent reforms to ensure that employment growth benefits all workers rather than masking systemic vulnerabilities.
