Ryanair has seen a significant increase in bookings to European destinations for the Easter holidays as travelers steer clear of the Middle East amid escalating conflict, the airline’s CEO Michael O’Leary said on Tuesday. He added that the shift in travel patterns is unlikely to affect longer-term booking trends for the summer months.
The ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran has disrupted flights across the region, closing key Middle Eastern hubs and driving oil prices sharply higher, prompting warnings of weeks of airline disruption.
“We’ve seen certainly a big collapse in bookings to the Middle East and a surge in short-haul bookings within Europe, particularly focused on the Easter holidays,” O’Leary said at a press conference in Warsaw. “But I don’t think it has any fundamental impact on longer-term booking trends into May, June, or July.”
O’Leary noted that Ryanair’s immediate priority is repatriating passengers stranded in Jordan. “Wherever we can help with repatriations, we would try to be helpful, but our focus is our customers who are currently stranded in Jordan,” he said, adding that the airline has limited spare capacity for other repatriation efforts.
Rising oil prices, up roughly 30% this year due to the Middle East conflict, have raised concerns about the cost of jet fuel and potential pressure on airline profits. O’Leary reassured that Ryanair’s hedging strategy shields it from short-term price shocks. “We’re hedged for the next 12 months out to March 2027 at about $67 per barrel. So it won’t affect our costs and it won’t affect our low fares,” he said.
The airline also announced plans to double its operations at Warsaw’s Modlin airport, increasing its base to seven planes.
Ryanair reported a 6% rise in passenger numbers for February, carrying a total of 13.3 million travelers compared with 12.6 million in the same month last year. Its load factor, a measure of how many seats are filled on each flight, remained steady at 92%, while the airline operated over 75,000 flights during the month.
Despite strong passenger growth, Ryanair shares were down in Dublin trading on Tuesday, reflecting broader market concerns over geopolitical tensions and energy costs.
Analysts say the surge in European bookings highlights the immediate impact of geopolitical events on consumer behavior, with travelers shifting away from risk-prone regions and prioritizing short-haul, familiar destinations. While Ryanair appears insulated from rising fuel costs in the near term, continued instability in the Middle East could have wider implications for airlines dependent on global fuel markets.
