Global oil inventories are being drawn down at an unprecedented rate as the Middle East war continues to disrupt supply chains, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Wednesday, raising concerns over tighter markets and potential price spikes ahead of the peak summer demand period.
According to the agency, worldwide stockpiles fell by a further 117 million barrels in April, following a sharper drawdown of 129 million barrels in March after US and Israeli strikes on Iran intensified tensions in the region. The sustained depletion reflects growing reliance on emergency reserves as normal supply routes remain under strain.
The IEA said countries are now tapping into strategic petroleum reserves “at a record pace” as the closure of key transit routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, continues to restrict flows of Gulf crude and natural gas. Tehran’s effective restriction of the waterway has forced major importers to compete for alternative supplies, contributing to elevated market volatility.
The agency noted that around 164 million barrels have already been released from emergency stocks pledged by member countries, part of a broader 400 million barrel support package announced in March. Additional releases are expected in the coming months as governments attempt to stabilise supply conditions.
Officials warned that rapidly shrinking buffers are increasing the risk of further price surges. With the northern hemisphere entering its summer travel season, demand for fuel is expected to climb, particularly for aviation. Airlines have already signalled concerns that jet fuel shortages could emerge within weeks if disruptions persist.
“With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period,” the IEA said in its monthly outlook.
At the same time, higher prices are beginning to weigh on consumption. Industrial users, including petrochemical producers and heavy manufacturers, are scaling back usage in response to rising costs.
The agency revised its demand forecast downward, now expecting global oil consumption to contract by 2.4 million barrels per day in the second quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of a 3.5 million barrel per day decline before the escalation of the conflict.
“Higher prices, a deteriorating economic environment and demand-saving measures will further weigh on global oil consumption,” the report added.
Energy analysts say the combination of geopolitical instability and tightening inventories is leaving markets more vulnerable to sudden shocks, particularly if supply disruptions persist into the second half of the year.
