Ireland’s population may grow far more rapidly than previously forecast, according to new long-term scenarios published by the Department of Finance.
Under a high-growth scenario, the country’s population could reach 7.59 million by 2065, well above the most recent projections from the Central Statistics Office (CSO). A central estimate would put the figure at 6.7 million, while a low-growth forecast suggests the population would rise to around 6 million.
The department said the analysis was designed to help policymakers prepare for demographic changes that will have significant social and economic implications.
John McCarthy, Chief Economist at the Department of Finance, explained that the department’s higher estimates reflect stronger expectations for immigration. “One of the reasons we are where we are with housing is the population,” McCarthy said, linking demographic pressures to Ireland’s ongoing housing shortage.
Population growth is projected to be driven primarily by net migration, with up to 58,000 additional people arriving in the country each year under the high-growth scenario. The central projection assumes 40,000 arrivals annually, while the low-growth outlook suggests closer to 18,500.
The report warns that if net migration were to fall to zero by 2035, Ireland’s labour force would begin to shrink as more people leave the workforce through retirement. “The economic consequences of such a fall would potentially be very negative — posing major challenges for Ireland’s enterprise base, diminishing the capacity of the State to provide public services, and ultimately reducing living standards as a shrinking labour market constrains economic growth,” the department said.
The forecasts also underline challenges related to Ireland’s ageing population. An increasing old-age dependency ratio will put additional pressure on public finances, particularly through higher costs for pensions, healthcare, and social services.
At the same time, fertility rates are projected to continue their long-term decline. Ireland’s fertility rate has dropped from 2.6 births per woman in the early 1980s to 1.53 today, one of the lowest in Europe. The figure is expected to fall further to 1.3 by 2038 before stabilising. This means that natural population growth will play a smaller role in the coming decades, leaving immigration as the main driver of demographic expansion.
The report also highlighted concerns about retention of skilled migrants. Around half of migrants with critical skills work permits are leaving Ireland within five years, often moving to other countries offering more attractive opportunities.
The Department of Finance’s analysis suggests that policymakers will need to plan not only for a larger population but also for the social and economic pressures that come with it.
