Ryanair has cut its passenger target for the 2027 financial year as the airline prepares for higher fuel costs and weaker demand during the winter season, warning that prolonged high oil prices could put pressure on less well-protected rivals.
Europe’s largest budget airline said it now expects to carry 214 million passengers in its fiscal 2027 year, down from its previous forecast of 216 million. The move comes as the aviation industry faces a sharp rise in jet fuel prices following the war involving Iran.
Ryanair said the fuel shock was forcing airlines across Europe to reconsider their schedules ahead of the winter period, which is typically a difficult season for carriers.
The airline said European short-haul fares could rise significantly if oil prices remain elevated through the summer of 2027. It warned that airlines with less fuel protection could be forced to reduce capacity or struggle to remain financially viable.
Ryanair is among Europe’s airlines with the strongest fuel hedging positions. It said about 80 per cent of its jet fuel requirements were covered through March 2027 at roughly $67 a barrel.
The carrier said jet fuel was currently trading at around $140 a barrel. To reduce its exposure to higher costs, Ryanair plans to keep its winter capacity broadly unchanged from last year.
The company estimates that the decision could reduce its winter losses by between €70 million and €100 million.
Ryanair has already taken steps to reduce capacity. In July, it removed five aircraft from its base at Charleroi in Belgium and cut two million seats from its Brussels schedule covering winter 2026 and summer 2027.
Davy analyst Stephen Furlong described the passenger target reduction as proactive management and said other airlines could make similar decisions as fuel costs remain high.
Ryanair shares, which have fallen about 20 per cent since the Iran war began, rose around 2 per cent in Dublin trading. Investors were encouraged by the airline’s expectation that traffic between April and October would increase by more than 5 per cent.
The airline said fares in the second quarter were modestly lower than a year earlier. It expects its full-year profit to remain below last year’s record result, although it said it was too early to give reliable guidance for profit after tax.
August traffic rose 6 per cent year on year to 22.2 million passengers, compared with 21 million in August last year. The load factor remained at 96 per cent.
Ryanair operated more than 120,500 flights during the month, although more than 400 were cancelled because of eruptions from Mount Etna.
The airline expects passenger numbers between November and March to remain broadly flat as it manages capacity and fuel costs through the challenging winter period.
