Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist opposition candidate backed by Poland’s conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), has narrowly defeated liberal incumbent ally Rafal Trzaskowski in the country’s presidential run-off election. The electoral commission confirmed Monday that Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote, compared to 49.11% for Trzaskowski.
The result marks a setback for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European government and could complicate its legislative agenda, particularly on judicial reforms and social policy. While Poland’s prime minister and parliament wield most executive power, the president holds veto authority, making the presidency a crucial counterbalance in the country’s political landscape.
Nawrocki, 42, a historian and former head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, ran on a nationalist platform, promising to prioritise Polish citizens in economic and social policy, including limiting support for refugees—especially those fleeing the war in neighbouring Ukraine. His campaign resonated with conservative voters despite a late surge in controversy surrounding his personal history, including past involvement in orchestrated street fights and a disputed real estate acquisition.
The close race drew significant attention both at home and abroad. An earlier exit poll had projected a razor-thin victory for Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, adding to the suspense. Voter turnout reached 71.31%, the highest ever recorded for a second-round presidential election in Poland.
President Andrzej Duda, a conservative and ally of Nawrocki, congratulated his successor and praised Polish citizens for their civic engagement. “Thank you… for fulfilling your civic duty. Congratulations to the winner! Stay strong, Poland!” Duda wrote on social media platform X.
International leaders were quick to respond. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen extended her congratulations, saying she was confident in continued cooperation with Warsaw despite political differences. “We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values,” she posted on X.
Nawrocki is expected to follow in Duda’s footsteps by resisting government efforts to liberalise abortion laws and overhaul the judiciary—moves that have drawn concern from EU institutions. His victory could deepen domestic divisions and complicate Poland’s relations with Brussels.
Observers across the EU, as well as in the US, Russia, and Ukraine, have been closely monitoring the election, given Poland’s strategic importance in regional security and EU policymaking.
