The United Nations has warned that current national climate pledges would deliver only a 10% cut in global emissions by 2035 — far below what scientists say is needed to keep global warming within safe limits. The announcement comes just days before world leaders gather in Brazil for the COP30 climate summit, where pressure is mounting on major emitters to ramp up their commitments.
In a new assessment released this week, UN Climate Change said it was unable to provide a complete global overview because most countries had failed to submit their updated climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), by the September deadline. Only 64 of nearly 200 signatories to the 2015 Paris Agreement had met the cut-off date.
The UN’s estimate includes data from key polluters such as China, the United States, and the European Union, even though some of their submissions were incomplete or informal. The analysis suggests that while emissions are finally starting to decline, the pace of reduction remains far too slow to meet global targets.
“Humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change. He noted that the current pledges amount to only a fraction of the 60% cut required by 2035 to have a good chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned last week that it was now “inevitable” that the world would temporarily exceed the 1.5°C limit, triggering severe climate impacts before efforts could bring temperatures back down later in the century.
The upcoming two-week COP30 conference, opening on 10 November in the Amazon, is expected to be one of the most contentious climate negotiations yet, as delegates confront political divisions, economic concerns, and a changing global landscape. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency — and his decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement for a second time — has further complicated the international picture.
The UN’s partial analysis incorporates China’s first absolute emissions target, pledging a 7–10% cut by 2035, and the European Union’s “statement of intent” to reduce emissions by between 66.25% and 72.5% from 1990 levels. Both commitments, however, face internal and geopolitical challenges.
With global temperatures already about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists warn that breaching 1.5°C could occur within this decade. Each fraction of a degree, they say, dramatically increases the risks of extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and food insecurity.
“We are still in the race,” Mr. Stiell said, “but to ensure a livable planet for all eight billion people today, we must urgently pick up the pace — at COP30 and every year thereafter.”
